Understanding Line Movement Causes in Sports Betting

First, we’ll think about how the line movement affects our bets when we already know who we want to bet on. If you are sure which side you want to back, all you need to worry about is getting the best price or point spread. In this bet, the odds have remained the same (-110) and only the point spread has changed. Depending on which side of the bet you want to take, you may be better off waiting until the line has moved in your favor.

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• Line movement can also be caused by external factors such as injuries or team selection, so make sure you consider this possibility before you draw any conclusions about why the line has moved.
• Let’s go back to our Yankees vs. Red Sox example and assume the sportsbook initially set the odds for the Yankees to win at -200.
• Those that do will often move first when they get a big bet from a respected player, and the rest of the books will follow quickly after.
• The Steam Move betting strategy is an alert-based feature that is triggered whenever there is a sudden drastic and uniform line movement across the entire sports betting marketplace.

Quantitative calculations marry qualitative recognition for a profitable partnership over the long haul. The Bengals are 9-1 Against the Spread (ATS) in their last 10 games. Thankfully, there are several free sources for finding the opening line of a game you’re looking to wager on such as Pregame.com, DonBest.com and VegasInsider.com. You see the Steelers with 80% of the bets, but the line drops from 6.5 to 5.5. If you bet on over, you are predicting that the Pacers and the Thunder will combine for at least 216 points during the game. A bet on under is a prediction that Indiana and Oklahoma City will combine for no more than 215 points.

Our sports betting research platform will make you a smarter, more efficient, and more confident bettor. The week before the Bengals game, Steelers starting QB Mitch Trubisky tore his ACL in practice. When that injury information gets released, the book will adjust its line no matter the amount of action. The sportsbook is comfortable with this imbalance because the line movement was driven by sharp action, which they trust more than public money. They have to set odds for tens of thousands of betting markets, which leaves them vulnerable to inefficiencies.

Also, many promotional odds boosts or special offers happen closer to game time, which some bettors take advantage of (though that’s a side perk). Betting line movement is one of the most important aspects of baseball betting. MLB line movement occurs when money comes in on one side or another in any given game. These bets can be on the MLB spread, the money line, or the over under, it doesn’t actually matter the bet type because all baseball betting features line movement.

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Here, the Maple Leafs are the favorite – you need to bet $135 on them to win $100. The Bruins are dogs – if you bet $100 on them you stand to win $125. Here, the line has moved so that the Colts are even bigger favorites. Now, if you bet on them, they will need to win by 5 points or more for you to win your bet. This line movement indicates that a lot of money has been placed on the Celtics in a short space of time. Although movement does tend to go against the favorite, it is often quite gradual.

Our odds page features top-rated sportsbooks in your area, providing the most up-to-date lines for every game and futures market across various sports. Look for odds highlighted in blue – they represent the best value for a particular bet. The format might seem a bit complex at first because it involves fractions, but it’s actually straightforward once you grasp it. The numerator (top number) indicates how much you’d win, while the denominator (bottom number) represents the stake. If you bet $10 at 7/2, you’d get $35 in profit plus your initial $10 back, totaling $45. Lower odds, like 2/5, mean you have to bet more to earn less, indicating a favored outcome.

Alternatively, it is possible you should get in on the action as early as possible if you think the line will move against you. This page is your guide to line movements and how they relate to sports gambling. Line movement can help get the best possible price on your wagers and it can also give you valuable information on stake how to bet.

Download our free smartphone app (Android & iPhone) for even quicker access and start making smarter bets now. If it were, sportsbooks and casinos wouldn’t be as profitable as they are. Every day we post the most lopsided games in terms of number of bets and percentage of bets. The contrarian betting strategy takes advantage of over-shaded lines and greedy sportsbooks. If a line looks too good to be true, it’s good to bet the other way because it consistently pays to bet against the public.